FORECAST DISTRIBUTION

A collaborative decentralized distribution system with demand forecast updates

Estimating the probability distribution of a travel demand forecast

We present a practical method for estimating the probability distribution of a travel demand forecast. Given a forecast of any variable of interest, such as revenue or ridership, the approach identifies independent sources of uncertainty, estimates a probability distribution of each source, estimates the sensitivity of the variable to each source, and then combines the effects. A case study is ...

tex Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty : Distribution Forecast Targeting ∗

We examine optimal and other monetary policies in a linear-quadratic setup with a relatively general form of model uncertainty, so-called Markov jump-linear-quadratic systems extended to include forward-looking variables and unobservable “modes.” The form of model uncertainty our framework encompasses includes: simple i.i.d. model deviations; serially correlated model deviations; estimable regi...

Artificial Neural Network-based Distribution Substation and Feeder Load Forecast

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been successfully applied to the problem of forecasting future load values, especially in the short term framework (a few minutes to a few hours ahead). Traditional analytical models have shown difficulties when dealing with (i) the highly variable demand curve shapes, (ii) some independent variables that exhibit random behaviour, and (iii) the identificat...

Multi-Model Prediction for Demand Forecast in Water Distribution Networks

This paper presents a multi-model predictor called Qualitative Multi-Model Predictor Plus (QMMP+) for demand forecast in water distribution networks. QMMP+ is based on the decomposition of the quantitative and qualitative information of the time-series. The quantitative component (i.e., the daily consumption prediction) is forecasted and the pattern mode estimated using a Nearest Neighbor (NN) ...